Thu 25 Jun 2009
Jeremy thinks the U.S. may invade Iran. His reasons, from his latest Politico column:
Will U.S. forces get dragged into this conflict? President Barack Obama clearly does not want to go there, but here are five reasons why that could — and, unfortunately, might — change.
1. Americans hate the mullahs: Americans are often foggy on many historical facts, but something about the Iran hostage crisis has stuck. Polls have shown that Americans are, at the very least, not all that hostile to bombing Iran. When George W. Bush included Iran in his “axis of evil,” it was a cheer line.
2. We’re already in the neighborhood: The deployment of troops into Iran would be made much easier because the U.S. has all those troops parked right next door in Iraq.
3. Chaos: If the situation in Iran deteriorates further, people will flee the country, and calls for humanitarian intervention will arise. Conflict could spill over into Iraq, which would cause U.S. troops to push back.
4. Wag the great Satan: Iran’s supreme leader warned against outside interference for a rhetorical reason. He wants to paint the conflict in terms of proud Iranians versus the rest of the world instead of the people’s will versus a corrupt mullahocracy. He might provoke an international confrontation to rally the country, reasoning that Obama wouldn’t dare react.
5. Did I mention that Americans really hate the mullahs? Obama wants dialogue with Iran, but that will be hard if there’s no undisputed ruler to talk to. His patience is finite, and domestic pressures will matter.
Read the whole thing here.
